From August, 2004 to September, 2005 an inaugural in-depth Delphi Study was performed by the Society of Actuaries designed to obtain insights into the rationales and thought processes experts used in making judgments about the long range (20 years) values of four U.S. economic variables:
1. Annual increase in the Consumer Price Index
2. 10 Year Treasury Spot Yields
3. S&P 500 Total Rate of Return
4. Corporate Baa Spot Yields
The Study has the additional goals and objectives of providing actuaries and other financial professionals with an illustrative application of the use of a futures research technique to supplement traditional forecasting practices and with a plausible “fan of possibilities” for the values of these economic variables to aid in setting of assumptions and as a backdrop for strategic planning.
This Study had both methodological and substantive components. Methodologically, it was to demonstrate the Delphi technique and supporting methods in a meaningful application. Substantively, the Delphi was designed to provide a plausible quantitative range of expectations with insight into the subjective models and rationales used by the participants in making their judgments.