From August, 2004 to September, 2005 an inaugural in-depth Delphi Study was performed by the Society of Ac..."> From August, 2004 to September, 2005 an inaugural in-depth Delphi Study was performed by the Society of Ac..."/>
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A study of the use of the Delphi method : a future research technique for forecasting selected U.S. economic variables and determining rationales for judgments

From August, 2004 to September, 2005 an inaugural in-depth Delphi Study was performed by the Society of Actuaries designed to obtain insights into the rationales and thought processes experts used in making judgments about the long range (20 years) values of four U.S. economic variables:rn1. Annual increase in the Consumer Price Indexrn2. 10 Year Treasury Spot Yieldsrn3. S&P 500 Total Rate of Returnrn4. Corporate Baa Spot YieldsrnThe Study has the additional goals and objectives of providing actuaries and other financial professionals with an illustrative application of the use of a futures research technique to supplement traditional forecasting practices and with a plausible “fan of possibilities” for the values of these economic variables to aid in setting of assumptions and as a backdrop for strategic planning.rnThis Study had both methodological and substantive components. Methodologically, it was to demonstrate the Delphi technique and supporting methods in a meaningful application. Substantively, the Delphi was designed to provide a plausible quantitative range of expectations with insight into the subjective models and rationales used by the participants in making their judgments.rn

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Location name is not set (2A) 330.0112 STU S
2017-0211
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Series Title
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Call Number
330.0112 STU S
Publisher
: .,
Collation
142 hlm. : ilus. , 30 cm.
Language
English
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Classification
330.0112
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Statement of Responsibility
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