in the first quarter of the year was almost 1 Oil demand in million b/d higher than forecast, largely as a result of the prolonged very cold weather in the USA, and apparent higher from where exports were some 0.3 million demand in the FSU b/d lower than year earlier. These factors have eradicated a large proportion of the excess of stocks evident at the end of 1993 and have left stockS at the end of the first quarter some fwo days tighter than year earlier and at the lowest level on record. If OPEC were to maintain its level of production at close to the level seen for each of the past nine mnonths through the remainder of the year, as essentially agreed at the MMC meeting in March, the stocks position at the end of the year would be untenably tight. To keep stocks balanced through the winter will require OPEC production to average close to 26 million b/d from mid year through to end of next winter.